Uncontrolled Exponential Growth and the Apocalypse

The video above argues that we need to transition to a Post-Growth Economy because we are facing multiple, overlapping crises. My argument is that we need to stabilize our economic and demographic systems by reducing growth rates, not because the Apocalypse is necessarily coming but because unstable  economic and demographic systems can produce undesirable outcomes such as WWI, the Great Depression, WWII and Nazi Germany. 

"Anything that has happened in History, because it actually did happen, can happen again, usually in another form," Prof. Timothy Snyder, in A World of Empire.

Our problem is to understand why historical events occur and not engage in:

Sep 25, 2026 The Problem With Apocalyptic Thinking From climate to Covid to A.I., we face a terrifying feeling of exponential growth spinning out of our control. Are we right? Why can't we stop predicting the Apocalypse?

 

In terms of modern Systems Thinking, our worries about Exponential Growth go all the way back to Thomas Robert Malthus, through the Limits to Growth, through the Climate Crisis, through the COVI-19 Pandemic and now into the AI Apocalypse. These worries feed right to the suspicion that our Techo-Social Systems are not under control.

My work (see below) has been erroneously placed in the Doom-and-Gloom Tradition and I can't seem to escape the label. My position is not that Exponential Growth always leads to crisis. In fact, throughout History most of our Techno-Social Systems are Dynamically Unstable and obviously unstable growth does not always end in disaster.

However, unstable growth can, under certain circumstances that we don't completely understand, result in catastrophes. Said more specifically in another way, without the unstable growth of 19th Century Germany, World War I, German Hyperinflation, the Great Depression, Nazi Germany and World War II would not have been possible. A stable Germany in the early 20th Century, would not have threatened its European neighbors and could not have fought a two-front World War.

My current hypothesis is that the underlying problem has to do with an issue, well known to Economists, called the Balanced Growth Equilibrium.** In Germany, the Political System reached equilibrium in the Late Nineteenth Century. In Europe, the Geopolitical Balance of Power also reached equilibrium in the Late Nineteenth Century. What continued growing exponential was the Economy of Germany and the German Population.

The State-Space models below present the results. The three models are: (1) The Business-as-Usual (BAU) Model, (2) the World-Input (DEL19 W-Input) Model and  (3) Random Walk (RW) Model. The BAU model is unstable and cyclical (Eigenvalues greater than 1.0 with imaginary components). The W-Input model is stable and cyclical (Eigenvalues < 1.0 with imaginary components). The Random Walk (RW) Model, which serves as a baseline, is unstable and anything can happen.

Forecasting the First Component (FRG1) for each model in the graphic above shows that the BAU model produces uncontrolled exponential growth forever. The W-Input produces stable growth well after the year 2000. The RW Model provides the baseline (anything can happen).

From the DE_L19 BAU Model below, notice the following coefficients: (1) F[5,5] = 1.778, the coefficient controlling Population (N) Growth and (2) F[1,1] = 1.025, the Economic Growth coefficient. Both these coefficients, greater than 1.0, produce instability in the model.

For the DE_L19 W-Input model, the comparable coefficients are F[5,5] = 0.9295 and F[1,1] = 0.862, both are less than 1.0 and the model is stable. In other words, Geopolitical Linkage to the World System would have given Germany stable growth well past the year 2000. 

My argument, from reading the history, is that Germany (particularly after the reign of Wilhelm II, the last German Emperor) imagined it could dominate the World System given unstable BAU-growth in the Late Nineteenth Century. After WWI, they realized that they could destabilize the system further by creating Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic (unstable and uncontrolled growth of Prices).

I'll pick up the issues of why both German Democracy and the Balance of Power System "failed" to prevent the rise of the Nazi Party. Until then, you can run FR19 Model yourself using R-code on my Google Site (here).

Notes

• Pasdirtz, G. W. (1981) Instability and Late Nineteenth Century German Development UW-Madison Thesis.
• The Late Nineteenth Century German Counterfactual World War I, the Great Depression, Nazi Germany and World War II could not have happened if Germany had been a stable Socio-Technical System in the Late 19th Century.

** Unlike the Standard Balanced Growth Equilibrium model in Economics, the German 19th Century model had two unstable components: Economic Growth and Population Growth. Typically, economic models take Population as exogenous and don't allow any feedback between economic growth and population growth--a mistake, at least in Germany.

• Timeline of German History This is a timeline of German history, comprising important legal and territorial changes and political events in Germany and its predecessor states. To read about the background to these events, see History of Germany. See also the list of German monarchs and list of chancellors of Germany and the list of years in Germany.
• Historiography of the causes of World War I Historians writing about the origins of World War I have differed over the relative emphasis they place upon the factors involved. Changes in historical arguments over time are in part related to the delayed availability of classified historical archives.
• The Long Nineteenth Century a term for the 125-year period beginning with the onset of the French Revolution in 1789, and ending with the outbreak of World War I in 1914. It was coined by the Soviet writer Ilya Ehrenburg, and later popularized by the British historian Eric Hobsbawm.
• What is the Best Counterfactual for the Long Nineteenth Century? The possible victory of Germany in World War II (WWII) is the standard counterfactual for the Long Nineteenth Century. Although interesting, I'm not sure it's the best counterfactual.
• World-System Germany Counterfactual (1800-1950) No WWI, Great Depression, Nazi Party or WWII (Under Construction).

DE_L19 BAU Model

DE_L19 W-Input Model

FRGL19 Model Measurement Matrix

For the construction of the indexes, see Pasdirtz(1981).