World-System (1960-2100) Growth-And-Collapse Modes

 


The concept of a Steady State Economy seemed reasonable to the Classical Economists but the idea was abandoned in the 20th Century when Neoclassical Economists fell in love with unlimited exponential growth. Peddling Prosperity is the key for Policy Entrepreneurs to gain access to political influence. No politician can stand up (successfully) and peddle Limits to Growth. And, once a political system (particularly at the local level) is on the Growth Treadmill, there is no getting off until the system collapses.

From the perspective of Systems Theory, however, a steady state is just one of a number (seven to be exact) of Growth Paths that systems models can generate when there is no random variation input. Systems Theory treats the Steady State Economy as a testable prediction rather than an inevitability.

Looking at the World System being driven by various countries (the US, Business-as-Usual (W), the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), Italy (IT), Germany (DE), France (FR) and Spain (ES), we see only a few steady state predictions (the EU being most prominent) and mostly Growth-and-Collapse modes.

There are also Unlimited Growth Forecasts that Systems Theory treats as hypotheses rather than inevitabilities. Even though nothing in a finite world can grow exponentially forever, we are always dealing with finite historical periods where exponential growth is possible. Economists have simply over-generalized the exponential mode of expansion.

One future exponential mode of expansion is the Moving Equilibrium where, in Dynamic Component models, the overall growth component is exponential but the lower-order feedback components are stable. Moving Equilibrium is a very common mode of expansion during bounded historical periods. Problems result when the feedback components are also unstable (this mode of expansion is also common.

Finally, the Random Walk (RW) is another short-term mode of expansion for World-Systems. The RW occurs particularly at Historical Conjunctures when systems are searching for new attractor paths. For example, the period between WWI and WWII probably is best seen as a Random Walk.

Notes

Google AI:

Several studies indicate that no country has achieved a true steady-state economy, which is defined as an economy with a stable level of resource use maintained within ecological limits. 
However, some countries demonstrate features that could be considered closer to a steady-state approach:
    • Stable resource use: A few countries have shown relatively constant resource use year-to-year, including Denmark, France, Japan, Poland, Romania, and the US.
    • Biophysical degrowth: Germany, Guyana, Moldova, and Zimbabwe are experiencing a decrease in resource use in the majority of indicators.
    • Balancing stability and degrowth: Some countries like Lithuania, Slovakia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the UK demonstrate characteristics that lie between degrowth and stable resource use.
    • Holistic stability: Japan stands out as the only country achieving relative stability across all seven indicators of the Biophysical Stability Index. 
While no country fully embodies a steady-state economy, some countries are showcasing promising trends in resource use and stability that could potentially lead towards a more sustainable economic model in the future. 

Models

You can run all the models plotted in the graphic
 at the beginning of this post here:
  • WL20 Model Used to drive other World-System Models. Unstable growth-and-collapse mode can be easily stabilize.
  • US1 World Input Model Driven by the WL20 Model. Unstable growth-and-collapse mode can be easily stabilized by stabilizing the WL20 model.
  • EU1 Model Stable, steady state BAU model.
  • IT1 Model Stable, steady state BAU model.
  • DE1 Model Stable, steady state BAU model.
  • UK1 Model Stable, World Input, Growth-And-Collapse model. Stabilizing the WL20 model creates a steady state.
  • FR1 Model  Stable, steady state BAU model.
  • ES1 Model Unstable, BAU model. Can be stabilized by reducing growth rates.
More models you can run:
  • LAC1 Model Latin American Countries regional model, stable, growth-and-collapse.
  • JP1 Model Japan, stable, steady-state.
  • RU1 Model Russia, stable, steady-state.
  • EAP1 Model East Asia Pacific Region, World System Input, stable, Growth-and-collapse mode.
  • CN1 Model China, World System Input, stable, Growth-and-collapse mode.
  • IN1 Model India, World System Input, stable, Growth-and-collapse mode

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